Re: the issue #1 to #2 sales drop, I think it is important to keep in mind that- by the time orders for #2 need to be in- no one has read #1 yet. So that drop is still rooted in speculation on the part of retailers as to what they think the customers are going to think of the new title. It is not a qualitative judgment based on the work. So that drop for Superior Foes only communicates what the retailers expected the drop in interest would be from the first to second issue. It was not informed by sellthrough or what their customers said they thought of the first issue.
Where you might be able to see a more direct 'I liked #1 enough to now buy #2' would be in digital sales, as those are not speculation, they are a direct publisher-to-consumer sellthrough. But I don't think Comixology releases those sorts of numbers. I think they just announce the top ten or something like that.
While it is true that the numbers for those first three issues are mostly dependent on what retailers think their sales will be—which as someone who once helped with a store’s ordering, I can tell you that it is a vague science at best—that thought process is completely based on past experience and pre-order numbers.
You know Batman and X-Men #2s aren’t going to drop off quite as sharply as other #2s, for instance, unless your pre-orders tell you your customers aren’t very confident in the concept, the creative team, or whatever their reasoning for not pre-ordering may be. By the same token, you know that a #2 of a Neil Gaiman series probably isn’t going to drop off as sharply as a book written by someone you’ve never heard of—which in a way is a qualitative judgement, though the quality is based on past work rather than the product in question.
That’s why we had a tiered discount system (and it's still in place) that went up to 30% off. We wanted to be as confident in our order numbers as possible. The more people we could convince to pre-order, the better.
I take your point that the strength of the brand, and the reputation of the team that has been hired can and do factor in. And that, of course, the people who do this for a living are going to try to make as informed of a judgment as possible. But that is still a judgment based on past quality, not the quality of the work itself. So, again to address the premise of @Chuck_Melville 's comment that "the numbers say that almost 57% of those who bought the first issue had read it and declared it 'meh'" does not hold, as no one- even those who knew the past work of the creative team- could be using a lot of things to help inform their ordering. But (unless advanced copies were sent months in advance to preview) they hadn't read it.
No, the “meh” statement does not hold up exactly. But if you’re good at ordering (and we were generally pretty good; we rarely had to bury more than two or three copies of anything), you can usually be fairly accurate at predicting your customers’ buying habits. And if you underestimate, you can usually get the reorders you need.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don’t the advanced re-orders and any re-orders made within the month of sale count in the sales numbers that are released? If that’s the case, and I’m pretty sure it is, then customer response is reflected in the numbers, at least in part. If customer demand is greater than the initial orders, stores can get more copies (assuming the copies are available), and thus raise the final numbers.
The problem lies in the stores that simply don’t place reorders, and there are plenty of them.
Re: the issue #1 to #2 sales drop, I think it is important to keep in mind that- by the time orders for #2 need to be in- no one has read #1 yet. So that drop is still rooted in speculation on the part of retailers as to what they think the customers are going to think of the new title. It is not a qualitative judgment based on the work. So that drop for Superior Foes only communicates what the retailers expected the drop in interest would be from the first to second issue. It was not informed by sellthrough or what their customers said they thought of the first issue.
Where you might be able to see a more direct 'I liked #1 enough to now buy #2' would be in digital sales, as those are not speculation, they are a direct publisher-to-consumer sellthrough. But I don't think Comixology releases those sorts of numbers. I think they just announce the top ten or something like that.
While it is true that the numbers for those first three issues are mostly dependent on what retailers think their sales will be—which as someone who once helped with a store’s ordering, I can tell you that it is a vague science at best—that thought process is completely based on past experience and pre-order numbers.
You know Batman and X-Men #2s aren’t going to drop off quite as sharply as other #2s, for instance, unless your pre-orders tell you your customers aren’t very confident in the concept, the creative team, or whatever their reasoning for not pre-ordering may be. By the same token, you know that a #2 of a Neil Gaiman series probably isn’t going to drop off as sharply as a book written by someone you’ve never heard of—which in a way is a qualitative judgement, though the quality is based on past work rather than the product in question.
That’s why we had a tiered discount system (and it's still in place) that went up to 30% off. We wanted to be as confident in our order numbers as possible. The more people we could convince to pre-order, the better.
I take your point that the strength of the brand, and the reputation of the team that has been hired can and do factor in. And that, of course, the people who do this for a living are going to try to make as informed of a judgment as possible. But that is still a judgment based on past quality, not the quality of the work itself. So, again to address the premise of @Chuck_Melville 's comment that "the numbers say that almost 57% of those who bought the first issue had read it and declared it 'meh'" does not hold, as no one- even those who knew the past work of the creative team- could be using a lot of things to help inform their ordering. But (unless advanced copies were sent months in advance to preview) they hadn't read it.
No, the “meh” statement does not hold up exactly. But if you’re good at ordering (and we were generally pretty good; we rarely had to bury more than two or three copies of anything), you can usually be fairly accurate at predicting your customers’ buying habits. And if you underestimate, you can usually get the reorders you need.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don’t the advanced re-orders and any re-orders made within the month of sale count in the sales numbers that are released? If that’s the case, and I’m pretty sure it is, then customer response is reflected in the numbers, at least in part. If customer demand is greater than the initial orders, stores can get more copies (assuming the copies are available), and thus raise the final numbers.
The problem lies in the stores that simply don’t place reorders, and there are plenty of them.
I'll concede the point that I'm probably overstating by claiming that 57% declared the book 'meh'. It's true that I wasn't giving consideration to discounts, initial orders, variants, etc. -- it's hard to wrap my head around all that stuff. Still, I'm fairly confident that a good percentage of that dropoff goes beyond those factors, especially as the dropoff extends beyond the first couple of issues.
@David_D how the heck did you get a -1 agree? and a -1 like? what does that even mean?are we replacing disagree with negative numbers now? thats just weird!
@David_D how the heck did you get a -1 agree? and a -1 like? what does that even mean?are we replacing disagree with negative numbers now? thats just weird!
Well with Nightwing being unmasked I kind of figured that Dick would be taking a new identity. Possibly Grey Ghost? Or what if he took over the Talon book as the main character with the plot line being him trying to go undercover and try to take down more of the Court of Owls organization. (Just a idea.) Also since Batgirl was kind of going through a identity crisis, what if she took up the mantle of Nightwing to help try confuse the public and cover for Dick. This would leave the Batgirl mantle open for Stephanie Brown. I am assuming Teen Titans will relaunch sometime soon with a tone we are more familiar with.
Superman Unchained!? The highly touted Superman title by the hot writer and the hot artist is being cancelled!?!? I didn't think the sales were anywhere near that bad. (In fact, they couldn't have been, or I would have put it on the list.)
Superman Unchained!? The highly touted Superman title by the hot writer and the hot artist is being cancelled!?!? I didn't think the sales were anywhere near that bad. (In fact, they couldn't have been, or I would have put it on the list.)
Remember- when it comes to creators like this, the numbers have to be compared from the context of opportunity cost: if Superman Unchained with Lee and Snyder didn't perform the way they expected, then at this point they are likely considering what else they could be having Lee and Snyder (together or apart) do that would pop even bigger numbers. That is why I don't believe there is any one numerical threshold under which a book gets cancelled. Because talent costs (and opportunity costs) will differ from book to book.
And it was announced a while ago that they were leaving Unchained after #9... Maybe DC couldn't put together another superstar team to make the book anything more than a run of the mill Supes title and decided to clear room for another book. They are publishing 2 weeklies now, that's gotta take up a ton of resources editorially.
Superman Unchained!? The highly touted Superman title by the hot writer and the hot artist is being cancelled!?!? I didn't think the sales were anywhere near that bad. (In fact, they couldn't have been, or I would have put it on the list.)
Remember- when it comes to creators like this, the numbers have to be compared from the context of opportunity cost: if Superman Unchained with Lee and Snyder didn't perform the way they expected, then at this point they are likely considering what else they could be having Lee and Snyder (together or apart) do that would pop even bigger numbers. That is why I don't believe there is any one numerical threshold under which a book gets cancelled. Because talent costs (and opportunity costs) will differ from book to book.
Yeah, @David_D you've got it pegged. When at @hauberk and I caught that Marvel editor at ISU a couple months ago he explained that more expensive creative teams cost more and each individual title has a budget to meet. A title with a cheaper creative team may be able to still meet their budget and limp along with some smaller overall numbers than a high profile title with big names on it.
I was shocked to see Superman Unchained canceled. I knew that Lee and Snyder would be ending their story sometime soon, but I would have thought that DC would have kept the title/branding alive, even if they had to put lesser names on it. You have an audience of 80,000 or whatever who have been used to getting something called "Superman Unchained"; you could put pretty much ANYONE on it for the first few post-Lee/Snyder issues, and they will still sell pretty well. On the other hand, I guess it is showing some integrity for DC to just say "Eh, the story's done so the book's done."
Teen Titans Suicide Squad Nightwing Superman Unchained Stormwatch And JLA (which is getting a relaunch)
Wait. JLA is getting relauched already? I thought they would maintain the core book in numbering order just because it is a main book.
Technically its being cancelled to make way for Justice League United (formerly Justice League Canada), which carries over a number of characters from the now defunt JLA.
Technically its being cancelled to make way for Justice League United (formerly Justice League Canada), which carries over a number of characters from the now defunt JLA.
Rats! I was looking forward to a " Justice League Canada" title.
Technically its being cancelled to make way for Justice League United (formerly Justice League Canada), which carries over a number of characters from the now defunt JLA.
Wait a second. There was a Justice League Canada? Wow, I really haven't been paying attention to DC.
Time once more to crank up the carousel and spin the wheel and see what shakes out from the November sales!
First, there's a whole slew of cancellations since the last list, some expected, some not, some dying an agonizing death and others simply going through a transition to a new edition. The officially cancelled at DC are Green Team, Stormwatch, Talon, Animal Man, Suicide Squad, Teen Titans and Superman Unchained. The cancellations at Marvel are Uncanny X-Force, Fantastic Four, Cable & X-Force, Secret Avengers, Avengers Assemble, Young Avengers, FF, Scarlet Spider, Avengers Arena, A+X, X-Men Legacy, Captain Marvel and Fearless Defenders. If I missed anybody, go ahead and post them.
I also wanted to mention that I'm only noting the mainstream DC and Marvel titles here -- no Digital Firsts, Vertigo, Max, Johnny DC or Ultimates. Mostly because I just want to focus on the mainline books, but also because most of these fall under different rules of sales, distribution and cancellation.
And now... the top six DC titles circling the drain:
1- The Movement -- Still #1 on the list as Issue 6 falls to 7,957 copies, losing another 12.7% readers and a loss of 72.8% since the title began. This Movement is only going one way, sad to say. 2- All-Star Western -- #25 drops 3.1% to 13,937 copies. Down 13.9% over six months. 3- Larfleeze #5, falling 10.5% to just 16, 157 copies. So far, the series has lost 44.1% since the first issue. 4- Batwing #25 actually gained some ground thanks to the Year One event. 16, 207 units, up 45.8% since last month and up 21.8% over six months. 5- Triad Of Sin: Phantom Stranger #13 -- The Stranger enters the lists at last with 17,779 units. A drop of 9.9%, but, oddly enough, up 9.3% over the past six months. 6- Constantine #8 has a rather healthy 20,981 units, dropping 8.6% this month, and 27.9% over six months. I don't think the book's in trouble yet, but it's sliding...
And on the Marvel side of things:
1- Avengers AI #6 -- Jumps right to the top of the list. 20,037 units, beating all of the DC listers except for Constantine; drops another 13.4% and has a six-month loss of 70.6%! DOOMED!! 2- Superior Foes Of Spider-Man -- #5. 23,694 units. Down 11.9%; six-month drop of 61.4%. Those drops are not healthy. 3- Thunderbolts -- #18 moved 26,502 units. Not entirely in danger, but with a 6.4% drop and a six-month loss of 19.3%... well, it's a worry. 4- Superior Spider-Man Team-Up #6. 27,189 copies. Drops 10.6%, six-month loss of 64.7%. 5- Savage Wolverine #12 pops onto the list with 29,739, falling only 2%. Six month drop of 29.8%. 6- Nova -- #10 sold 32,716, which is still pretty healthy. It gets onto the list only because of all of the vacant slots that have opened up this month. In fact, this issue climbed upwards by 1.2%, though it does have a six month drop of 14.2%
Information here is based on numbers presented in monthly columns by Marc-Oliver Frisch and Paul O'Brien for The Beat. And I'll note here that there's some changes going on with these sources -- mainly that both gentlemen are retiring from their respective lists and will be replaced by new blood in the coming months. Me, I'm still here, cutting and pasting as always.
I think Fantastic Four and Captain Marvel need an asterix next to their cancellations since they are both relaunching with new #1's very soon, and had less to do with sales than marketing.
I think Fantastic Four and Captain Marvel need an asterix next to their cancellations since they are both relaunching with new #1's very soon, and had less to do with sales than marketing.
I did mention that some titles were transitioning to new editions.
I think Fantastic Four and Captain Marvel need an asterix next to their cancellations since they are both relaunching with new #1's very soon, and had less to do with sales than marketing.
I did mention that some titles were transitioning to new editions.
Erp! kinda read the post in reverse. never really got to the first few sentences. My bad.
I'm surprised and very glad that DC continues to support Jonah Hex/ ASW. I loved reading the prior series of Hex in trades, and will do so with the current series eventually. I wonder if ASW sells well in collections overseas? I know Italy has a continuing tradition of their own Western comics. I would even see them on the newsstands there.
Comments
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don’t the advanced re-orders and any re-orders made within the month of sale count in the sales numbers that are released? If that’s the case, and I’m pretty sure it is, then customer response is reflected in the numbers, at least in part. If customer demand is greater than the initial orders, stores can get more copies (assuming the copies are available), and thus raise the final numbers.
The problem lies in the stores that simply don’t place reorders, and there are plenty of them.
comicbookresources.com/?page=article&id=50425
Teen Titans
Suicide Squad
Nightwing
Superman Unchained
Stormwatch
And JLA (which is getting a relaunch)
M
I am assuming Teen Titans will relaunch sometime soon with a tone we are more familiar with.
Matthew
First, there's a whole slew of cancellations since the last list, some expected, some not, some dying an agonizing death and others simply going through a transition to a new edition. The officially cancelled at DC are Green Team, Stormwatch, Talon, Animal Man, Suicide Squad, Teen Titans and Superman Unchained. The cancellations at Marvel are Uncanny X-Force, Fantastic Four, Cable & X-Force, Secret Avengers, Avengers Assemble, Young Avengers, FF, Scarlet Spider, Avengers Arena, A+X, X-Men Legacy, Captain Marvel and Fearless Defenders. If I missed anybody, go ahead and post them.
I also wanted to mention that I'm only noting the mainstream DC and Marvel titles here -- no Digital Firsts, Vertigo, Max, Johnny DC or Ultimates. Mostly because I just want to focus on the mainline books, but also because most of these fall under different rules of sales, distribution and cancellation.
And now... the top six DC titles circling the drain:
1- The Movement -- Still #1 on the list as Issue 6 falls to 7,957 copies, losing another 12.7% readers and a loss of 72.8% since the title began. This Movement is only going one way, sad to say.
2- All-Star Western -- #25 drops 3.1% to 13,937 copies. Down 13.9% over six months.
3- Larfleeze #5, falling 10.5% to just 16, 157 copies. So far, the series has lost 44.1% since the first issue.
4- Batwing #25 actually gained some ground thanks to the Year One event. 16, 207 units, up 45.8% since last month and up 21.8% over six months.
5- Triad Of Sin: Phantom Stranger #13 -- The Stranger enters the lists at last with 17,779 units. A drop of 9.9%, but, oddly enough, up 9.3% over the past six months.
6- Constantine #8 has a rather healthy 20,981 units, dropping 8.6% this month, and 27.9% over six months. I don't think the book's in trouble yet, but it's sliding...
And on the Marvel side of things:
1- Avengers AI #6 -- Jumps right to the top of the list. 20,037 units, beating all of the DC listers except for Constantine; drops another 13.4% and has a six-month loss of 70.6%! DOOMED!!
2- Superior Foes Of Spider-Man -- #5. 23,694 units. Down 11.9%; six-month drop of 61.4%. Those drops are not healthy.
3- Thunderbolts -- #18 moved 26,502 units. Not entirely in danger, but with a 6.4% drop and a six-month loss of 19.3%... well, it's a worry.
4- Superior Spider-Man Team-Up #6. 27,189 copies. Drops 10.6%, six-month loss of 64.7%.
5- Savage Wolverine #12 pops onto the list with 29,739, falling only 2%. Six month drop of 29.8%.
6- Nova -- #10 sold 32,716, which is still pretty healthy. It gets onto the list only because of all of the vacant slots that have opened up this month. In fact, this issue climbed upwards by 1.2%, though it does have a six month drop of 14.2%
Information here is based on numbers presented in monthly columns by Marc-Oliver Frisch and Paul O'Brien for The Beat. And I'll note here that there's some changes going on with these sources -- mainly that both gentlemen are retiring from their respective lists and will be replaced by new blood in the coming months. Me, I'm still here, cutting and pasting as always.